Archive - 2008

September 17th

Wordless Wednesday



A view from the Blue Ridge Parkway, originally uploaded by Aldon.

September 16th

No Parent Left Behind

Last night, I attended the Woodbridge Board of Education meeting where many interesting issues were discussed. A key issue was how Woodbridge students did on the Connecticut Mastery Tests (CMT). The teachers and administration were particularly concerned to make sure that the board and any members of the public present, understood how Woodbridge could be one of the highest performing schools in the district reference group (DRG), and still not make adequate yearly progress (AYP) with regards to No Child Left Behind (NCLB). There was a long discussion about this, which reinforced my belief that NCLB is fundamentally flawed. No only on its focus on standardized testing and being an unfunded mandate, but in the way the test results are understood, and many other ways.

People spoke at the meeting about townspeople being highly concerned with the CMT scores. I must admit, any concerns that I have about CMT scores are about what may be lost in the educational process by too much focus on the CMT scores.

After the meeting, I asked a few school board members if anyone had done any research on how concerned townspeople really are about CMT scores. One person mentioned that there is a small group of people very vocal about these scores. Another mentioned that the PTO had done a survey where CMT scores did not end up being a major concerned. She went on to note that this was a skewed sample, since it was only getting data from parents there were involved in the school through the PTO.

It struck me at this point that there might be a logical explanation of this. Parents of students who perform well on the CMTs are perhaps less concerned about the CMT scores. Since, it is well known that students perform better whose parents are more involved in the school, it would all fit together. The parents who took the survey were involved in the school. As a result, their children performed better, and the parents were less concerned about CMT scores.

So, what is the best way to improve CMT scores? Perhaps it isn’t in altering the curriculum, or spending more time on test preparation. Perhaps the answer is in getting more parents involved in the school and their children’s education.

I was pleased to see that the school board seemed to have this as a focus in other issues as well. The first issue, which had a long presentation and discussion was about creating a quarter mile loop around the sports fields that would be used for exercise, not only by students, but also by parents and members of the community. Apparently, this is a topic that has been kicking around for some time, but they have made significant progress, thanks to a grant from the State, obtained by Sen. Joe Crisco, to do a study of putting in such a loop. The Woodbridge Recreation Department has been working with the school the Beecher Road School PTO to help bring this about.

Wellness is a concern expressed for the children at Beecher Road School, and by encouraging parents to become involved in recreation events at the school, the school is helping the students perform better in these areas as a result of this involvement. There was discussion about naming the quarter mile loop after Kevin Kucinskas, the well beloved fifth-grade teacher who died over the summer.

The other big issue was the school budget. Beecher Road School burns about 66,000 gallons of fuel oil a year. With the sharp increase in oil prices, this is expected to require an additional $50,000 for the school year to keep the building heated. It is hoped that savings in other areas will be able to offset this. There was a discussion about whether or not the 66,000 gallons was a recent figure, perhaps skewed by year-to-year temperature variations, or if it was averaged out over a longer period.

The schools business manager explained that it was based on longer term averages and the discussion went to methods of reducing the amount of fuel used. It was suggested that getting the students and the parents involved in efforts to reduce fuel consumption might be beneficial. Yet again, I come back to the idea of parental involvement. The more involved the parents are in efforts to conserve fuel, the better off the school will be, and hopefully, this will spill over into people’s homes. Families could save money and be more energy efficient by learning how to conserve through programs with the school.

It was a long, and interesting meeting, and it brought home the importance of parental involvement in all aspects of the school. Let’s hope that Beecher Road, and other schools, start spending a little more time on No Parent Left Behind as a better way of dealing with the testing issues for No Child Left Behind.

September 15th

My Role in the Collapse of Lehman Brothers

People woke up this morning to the news that Lehman Brothers, a Wall Street giant, has filed for Bankruptcy, and Merrill Lynch, and even larger Wall Street giant has agreed to be taken over by Bank of America. Politicians issued statements. Taxpayers sighed a relief that their hard earned tax dollars were not used to bail out Lehman and small investors everywhere wondered what the collapse would do to their retirement accounts.

Some of us, however, have been watching this closely for some time. I worked at Lehman Brothers in the late 80s, and attended meetings with people who are now listed as key players. Over the weekend, I watched the financial newswires with the same fascination that I watched the weather channel as Ike pulled into Texas, or during Katrina a few years ago.

When I worked at Lehman, I worked with mortgaged backed securities, those currently much maligned financial instruments that seem to be at the center of so much of the financial turmoil these days. We calculated the probability of home owners prepaying their mortgages and sliced and diced the cashflows from pools of mortgages to sell off the different pieces at a profit.

Even back then, I wondered if this financial engineering was really making lives better for people other than those getting rich at Lehman and it’s related firms. Friends reassured me that by increasing liquidity in the mortgage market, by creating securities that tailor the risk to people most interested in it, we were making mortgages easier to obtain for more people. We were reducing the price of mortgages.

By the 1990s, I had moved on from Lehman brothers. I watched the bankruptcy of Drexel Burnham from a front row seat at Smith Barney, as I gathered any information I could to help Smith Barney protect itself for the collapse of Drexel. You see, every Wall Street firm trades with every other Wall Street firm. So of the trades can take weeks, or even months to be finally settled. When one firms fails, all the other firms are essentially creditors of the failed firm. On Wall Street, they talk about this in terms of ‘counter-party risk’.

A few years later, I watched Orange County file its bankruptcy. Orange County was one of those buyers gathering up these special financial instruments without fully understanding what they were buying.

That said, I would suggest that none of us fully understand our investments. How many people have their retirement accounts in mutual funds which have invested in Lehman Brothers, or, perhaps more significantly, in Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac? How many people have lost money, not only in terms of their taxpayer dollars being spent to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but also in terms of their investments in these mutual funds?

By 2000, I was working at a very large and successful Connecticut based Hedge Fund. I had a great house in Stamford, with a large mortgage. Yet I ended up leaving the hedge fund at the end of 2000, hoping that I would be able to find an equally good, if not better job in 2001. I did some consulting for other hedge funds and for some financial services startup firms that looked especially promising. Yet in September, 2001, the markets became roiled again, and I never did manage to find that next great job.

So, I muddled around, taking jobs where I could find them, and increasing the loans against my house. This is where I get back to my role in collapse of Lehman Brothers. Last year, I tried to sell my house. I knew that the housing market was collapsing, but I hoped I could sell the house and at least break even. My debt on the house at that time, was approximately 65% of what the mortgage companies had assessed the house for when I refinanced. That was also the highest that local realtors said we would be able to get for the house.

So, we placed it on the market, and waited, and hoped. We came very close to selling the house a few times, but deals seemed to always fall apart at the last minute. The most significant was in late July and early August, when a potential buyer went to contract with us. We rented our house in Woodbridge, and looked forward to the difficulties being over. Yet the buyer reneged and we are still fighting over their deposit in the courts.

With us living in a new house, and unable to make payments on the large old house, we sought a few last minute deals before heading into foreclosure. There was a big foreclosure auction, yet no one bid on the property. Later, the house sold for about half of what I had been told it was worth by the mortgage companies. With foreclosure came our bankruptcy, which is also currently in the courts. The bankruptcy affected not only those in the mortgage market, but other credit markets and small businesses as well.

It was not easy filing bankruptcy. Some of our creditors are companies or organizations that we hold in high regard, and I wish there were ways we could have paid them off. Other companies, by the unwillingness to negotiate in ways that might have prevented the foreclosure and bankruptcy from occurring are suffering, in my opinion, from their own stupidity.

So, I have added to the defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies that are dragging down our financial institutions. Our experiences are but one of many, that when taken together, end up passing on financial difficulties to large Wall Street firms.

It also adds to a cycle. How many of the people that will lose their jobs at Lehman Brothers or at Merrill Lynch, will end up in similar financial difficulties? How many will need to sell their houses at a loss, adding to a further slide in housing prices? From a Wall Street perspective, how much will the debts of Lehman drag down other financial services firms?

So, we continue to see financial difficulties. The politicians will continue to make statements about this. They will most likely be fairly simplistic, because I suspect many politicians don’t really understand the financial markets any better than many of voters. They will be simplistic, because you can’t address the issues of the financial services crisis in sound bites. They will be simplistic because many voters have little idea how interconnected all of the markets, and all of our lives truly are.

Would it have been better if the Government stepped in to cover some of the assets of Lehman brothers? It’s hard to tell. To a certain extent it is happening anyway, as the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world attempt to boost liquidity, including the Fed widening the types of collateral that it accepts for loans to financial services firms. Meanwhile, a large insurance firm, AIG, is reportedly asking the Fed for a $40 billion loan.

So, I will continue to scrape by, as I look for new opportunities. I guess we all will. The thousands of dollars in my bankruptcy pale compared to the billions in the financial markets. Yet, I still hope to get through this okay, and I hope our financial markets will too.

September 14th

Confronting the Blank Page

I’ve done a lot of writing today. Most of it has been for mailing lists, and nothing seems to fit for the blog. Other stuff that I’ve written will make a good blog post when I have some time to sit and think and pull it all together. Yet other than an automated post from ma.gnolia, I haven’t written anything for the blog today, and I feel compelled to do so.

Both yesterday and today, I wrote some long detailed personal emails that I was fairly pleased with. They required some serious thought and good wordcrafting. It felt good to write that way, and I’ve been thinking about my posts on the blog recently. Some of them have caused me to think as I put my words together, but a lot of them have been pretty light.

To a certain extent, that is okay. If I was having serious, weighty discussions all the time, I’d probably be even more boring. Yet I like to engage in serious discourse when I can.

I’ve also been speaking with the folks at sezWho, trying to get their post and comment rating system working more reliably on Drupal. They seem to have fixed most of the problems, although there are a few outstanding minor problems.

With that, I’m starting to get people to rate my blog posts. My welcome blog post has received six ratings, for an overall rating of 4.0. There really isn’t much of anything in the blog post, and perhaps people are using it to rate the blog overall. My most recent Wordless Wednesday post also received six ratings with an overall rating of 3.8. It was a picture of a German Chocolate cake that Fiona and I made for Kim for her birthday. As is common with Wordless Wednesday posts it received a fair amount of comments as well.

Yet my more serious post, the day before about discussions of the nature of authority on a mailing list that I’m on, received three ratings, for an overall score of 2.3. It received one comment, which didn’t really address the main theme of the post. Yet this post stimulated great discussions on two different mailing lists. I wish people who disagreed with what I wrote would leave comments about what they disagreed with, instead of simply giving it a poor rating. I also wish that sezWho would make it easy to see who has given which ratings, and what other posts they’ve rated. Without this, the ratings seem arbitrary and don’t really help to build either community or help further the discourse. I’ve suggested this to the folks at sezWho and we’ll see if this comes in a future release.

So, I sat down, I didn’t have a clear direction of where I wanted to go with today’s blog post, but, in order to stay with at least a post a day, I managed to crank out something. I hope it was interesting and/or informative. For me, the discipline of forcing myself to post every day, has been beneficial, and I think I’m improving as a writer because of it.

What do you think? What should the balance of light and serious posts be? How do we build community and discourse around our blogs? Do you have goals or other things that help you write regularly, or improve your writing?

Recent ma.noglia bookmarks

Here are pages I've recently bookmarked with ma.gnolia:

Flhurricane - Ike Texas TV Coverage Wall

Flhurricane - Ike Texas TV Coverage Wall

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