Sleepless Ramblings
(Originally published in Greater Democracy)
It is 9:30 in the morning. Last night, we were up until about 2:00 as we went from one election party to another. Fiona is with her grandparents, so we had the opportunity to sleep a little bit late. However, the pets wanted to be fed, and there is still too much adrenaline in the system. I have a pretty bad headache, and no coffee yet.
If I ramble, or seem incoherent, I apologize.
I’ve scanned various blogs and emails. I have over six hundred unread emails. It will take a little time to get my thoughts together, but I will offer a few random first thoughts.
My biggest concern had been that if Kerry did not receive a clear mandate, there is a serious chance that the United States will experience social unrest worse than the sixties. Kerry has not received such a mandate. The battle lines are drawn in Florida and Ohio. We shall see what the next developments will be. Already, I’m finding the words ‘bloodshed’ in emails. As I re-read my post, the words ‘four dead in Ohio’ come to mind.
On the Greater Democracy blog, we’ve talked a bit about ‘the master narrative’. In many ways, I feel like I am reading and living a novel. As you read it, you guess what will happen next. You see if your guesses are right. The difference here, is that we are all characters in the novel and participate in what goes on.
As I set down the novel for a moment and think, there are three possible twists to the storyline that I can imagine.
First, there is the story line around questioning the validity of the polls and the voting results. We’ve seen this foreshadowed a lot already, questions about polling techniques, questions about voting technology and efforts to suppress the vote.
This subplot develops into legal challenges around the country, which people have been predicting, and now seem to be coming into play. The election gets decided in the courts. People get upset about this and there are demonstrations. It fits with the social unrest theme. What happens at these demonstrations? How ugly do they get? How much violence is there? How does the Patriot Act fit in with suppressing this unrest? How quickly do people get over this and get back to there regularly scheduled lives? These are the twists that will be interesting to watch.
One possible outcome of this is that 2004 ends up mirroring 1972 and we see corruption investigations take down parts of the administration.
Then, there is the subplot about poor voter turnout. The media is talking about the long lines and the record turnout. There was an increase of about 10%. Yet even with that, less than 60% of voting age citizens appear to have voted. Over the coming months, people will talk about voting turnout among young voters, single women, and so on. Some people will invoke the ‘silent majority’ and talk about how everyone who didn’t vote are giving tacit approval of Bush. Some people will throw up their hands in despair and figure that the youth who didn’t vote get what they deserve as they get marched off to war.
Others will talk about how corrupt the system is and not wanting to participate and validate the system. They will be left with the question of, if you don’t use the system to change it, how are you going to change it. A likely answer is the social unrest I’ve talked about above.
The final subtheme seems to be the view that whole morass as the decline and fall of the American Empire. People will throw up their hands in disgust and move to Canada. Those folks who have been fooled by the NeoCons get what they deserve. Overseas investment in American will dry up and demand for American products overseas will continue to plummet as ‘Brand America’ gets further tarnished.
So, what are the responses? Slowly, themes seem to be emerging. ‘Don’t Mourn, Organize’ is the watchword. Some people are already thinking about 2008. Can the Democrats get their act together and find a candidate that appeals to moderate republicans and doesn’t get dismissed as a liberal senator from Massachusetts? Will we see Howard Dean return to the scene? Is there some other good Governor that would make a great leader?
Others are starting to look at digging deeper into avenues to take down the current administration through legal challenges. A search for the new ‘Deep Throat’ is on, a new Woodward and Bernstein, and a new Daniel Ellsberg.
Then, there are people looking at the upcoming elections, municipal elections in 2005, the next round of congressional elections in 2006, and making their plans. My wife Kim ran as an unknown challenger against a well liked incumbent and got 39% of the vote. Christine Cegelis ran against Henry Hyde and got 45% of the vote. Mike Kisler ran as an unknown in a heavily Republican district and got 42%. All three of them have declared victory and are now talking about their next campaigns. We need to get folks on the ground for these campaigns. We need to get others running.
I’ve rambled. I don’t have a nice conclusion to wrap this up nicely. That isn’t the way the story goes.