Mathew Gross challenges bloggers to predict the election results, so I've put my comments there, but I'm putting them here as well.

In Greenwich, CT, a town where many of the Bushes live and which has voted Republican in every election since 1964, I am finding many Republicans that are planning to vote for Kerry this year.

Based on this fact alone, my projection:
Kerry 61.2%
Bush 38.8%

Electoral College
Kerry 486
Bush 52

Always the optimist.

Other comments: Several people are predicting Kerry wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral vote.

Also, on the Iowa Election Markets, the current bidding is 51.9% Bush, 48% Kerry.